By George Mengov

ISBN-10: 3662471213

ISBN-13: 9783662471210

ISBN-10: 3662471221

ISBN-13: 9783662471227

This ebook deals a brand new point of view on human decision-making by way of evaluating the proven equipment in determination technological know-how with cutting edge modelling on the point of neurons and neural interactions. The e-book provides a brand new iteration of laptop versions, which may expect with brilliant accuracy person financial offerings while humans cause them to by means of quickly instinct instead of via attempt. A imaginative and prescient for a brand new form of social technology is printed, wherein neural types of emotion and cognition catch the dynamics of socioeconomic platforms and digital social networks. The exposition is approachable through specialists in addition to through complicated scholars. the writer is an affiliate Professor of determination technological know-how with a doctorate in Computational Neuroscience, and a former software program advisor to banks within the urban of London.

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Extra info for Decision Science: A Human-Oriented Perspective

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The debate was still in full force when in 1979 two important publications attracted attention. The first (Allais and Hagen 1979) was a collection of articles comprising a kind of recapitulation of the achievements and accumulated issues over the preceding three decades. In it, Allais gave an exposition of his own theory of decision-making under risk, while Morgenstern defended expected utility theory claiming that it was adequate descriptively, had a limited domain of applicability where it was accurate, and in that sense could even be compared to Newtonian mechanics.

Of course, no one expected totally consistent behaviour when choosing among alternatives. von Neumann and Morgenstern themselves had claimed that their system of axioms was just satisfactory. Friedman and Savage had called the transitivity requirement “an idealization”. However, the Mosteller and Nogee data showed that expected utility theory would not be able, in its current form, to accommodate many of the newly established facts about real economic behaviour. In addition, that first experiment offered some support for, but at the same time cast some doubt on the Friedman–Savage three-segment utility curve.

The relevant mathematical tool to study such phenomena is the Bayesian approach, which computes the probability of occurrence of an event by using the accumulated statistics for the set of related cases from the past. 5 Three Levels of Decision Analysis 17 achieved in 2005, when Thomas Griffiths and Joshua Tenenbaum discovered exactly how humans are intuitive Bayesian statisticians in everyday life and what is the importance of this result. These findings are discussed in Chap. 4 of the book. Much like the way psychology was vital for understanding the decision maker, the scientific community recognized that knowledge about the biological substrate is necessary to get even deeper into the fabric of the cognitive process.

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Decision Science: A Human-Oriented Perspective by George Mengov

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